It’s a U-turn, but it’s welcome. It made no sense electorally or politically for Sunak to miss the latest round of climate talks in Egypt and his volte-face was only ever a matter of time. Having – eventually – prioritised climate leadership over playing to the climate-denying right wing of his party, here are the 5 things Sunak should do at COP27.
1. Take the King – there’s no time and nothing to lose
Climate change isn’t a matter of conjecture. It’s a matter of grave urgency. It’s beyond politics, though continually mired in politicking. Sunak’s equivocation over attending COP27 is part of this needless politicisation of the climate agenda. Let’s not make the same mistake twice.
The new King’s attendance would not show any bias because climate science is certain. Most of the solutions are already known and deployed in most countries, but the primary problem is the speed of change.
Also, King Charles knows the issue – almost certainly better than the PM. He is highly regarded among business leaders and heads of state as an environmental leader and, at a time when urgency is the order of the day, there’s simply no reason why he shouldn’t go. He could brief Sunak on the way out too.
2. Grasp and lead on the urgency of the moment
The ticking clock of climate change is at 11.59, with experts warning of the peril in which we find ourselves. The pledges nations have made still don’t add up to the 1.5 degrees target agreed at the Paris COP in 2015. We have no time for any notions of second-tier COPs.
Sunak’s climate credentials are already tarnished because his instinct not to attend was wrong. As an ardent Brexiteer, the PM will know that one of the relatively few benefits of leaving the EU is that we can take up our own negotiating position in international processes. So why not make it bold? Call out large emitters and support the demand from poorer nations for a loss and damage finance facility to help them cope with the ravages already baked into the climate system.
Again, the King could be helpful here, as an honest broker on behalf of climate-vulnerable commonwealth countries. Together, he and the PM can also instil a sense of urgency. Rather than meeting every year, if world leaders took climate change seriously, they’d be coming together at least monthly, and Sunak would be chairing a weekly climate COBR meeting. Why not become the champion of urgent action?
3. Get some geo-political climate advice
What the Prime Minister needs is an adviser who understands what a global collective action problem is, and how this is likely to play out through geopolitics. Former Foreign Secretary William Hague might do.
Most of what Mr Sunak will hitherto have heard will have been from voices on the right of his own party, many of whom are either openly hostile to the climate agenda, or dishonest brokers.
While showing leadership by doing (and not doing - consenting to new coal mines for example) is an industrialised nation’s first responsibility at COPs; there’s no hiding behind national borders with climate change. The paradox for any one country is that the problem is only solved if all countries act, no matter how large or small.
The UNFCCC, the governing treaty of the climate talks, has an elegant way of framing this, which is ‘common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities'. In other words, all countries must act, but those – such as the UK – that have been emitting for longer and have grown wealthy as a result, have a greater responsibility and capability to act.
4. Represent the UK’s interests; they are compatible with urgent climate actio
Most people think climate change is a big risk and want the government to lead action. This summer has seen climate anxiety spike as heatwaves and wildfires at home and in popular holiday destinations have dominated the news. The UK is not as vulnerable as many poorer countries, but it is a lot more vulnerable than most politicians seem to think and Europe is warming faster than any other world region.
With an election looming, there’s no jeopardy in leading on climate change. There is potential jeopardy in not doing so, but there’s also unthinkable ecological and social jeopardy in not acting fast enough. If Sunak is planning to attend wearing his cloak of economic conservatism, then he should at least understand that many believe the economic costs of climate change are hugely underestimated.
Those who said Sunak going to COP27 would be virtue signalling are, in a sense, right because unless leaders signal clearly that climate change is the overriding crisis of our times, it’s hard for the rest of us to discern how seriously we should take it. That’s more or less the definition of leadership. Going to COP27 reluctantly has signalled the opposite; he’s got some ground to make up.
5. Show up for young people - they are relying on the PM, the King (and the rest of us)
Like any parent, I’m not in the climate change avoidance game only for the environment’s benefit. As a member of an older generation I need to be accountable to my son and his peers, who will face the sharp end of the climate crisis. Sunak needs to be accountable to young people rather than the small minority of older Conservative voters who may not want to make the relatively minor necessary lifestyle changes.
School students who are part of the thousands-strong UK Schools Sustainability Network, which is hosted by Global Action Plan, have put together a compelling set of demands for COP27. They also wrote an impassioned plea to the PM on the eve of his COP27 U-turn. It’s to be hoped he took their letter into account in his decision, as alongside COP27, school students are gathering virtually at the Transform Our World Youth Summit, coordinated by Global Action Plan - the theme this year is ‘power’ in the context of the climate. The PM needs to show them he’s willing to use his power well and in their interests. as otherwise when they reach voting age, many before the next election, they may decide to ensure that he no longer has any.