Peak oil

The concept of Peak Oil has been used by many organisations and movements – notably Transition Town - as a reason to cut our dependency on oil. Personally, I am always a little wary of using the concept as it is incredibly hard to judge when the Peak Oil point will be reached both because of the secrecy around the level of known existing oil reserves and because of the speed at which new technology is developing.

Several months ago I went to a discussion with leaders from one of the major oil companies who demonstrated their increasing ability to economically tap previously hard to reach oil reserves. However, as the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico depressingly demonstrates, the deployment of this new technology is highly risky. 

It looks like it will take a while for BP to stem the flow of oil into the gulf. One of the reasons is that the drilling was taking place at a very deep level. All three solutions that BP is seeking to implement to stop the leak require high levels of sophistication and are time consuming. The desire to extract the oil has clearly outpaced the ability to quickly and effective manage associated risks. 

Our continued high dependency on oil will mean that more risks are likely to be taken in future as we seek to extract oil from increasingly difficult places which will often be in environmentally sensitive areas. This for me is why we should be arguing harder for a more sustainable energy infrastructure and why the US administration should not allow more drilling rights in the Gulf of Mexico.

Meltdown or liberation?

On Friday a group of charity leaders met to discuss what messages we should be sending to the new Secretary of State at DEFRA. Whoever it is and from whatever party they are going to have a challenging time for three reasons. 

Firstly, DEFRA is one of the unprotected Government Departments when it comes to spending commitments. 

Secondly, it has a large number of ‘arms length’ bodies or quangos several of whom actively question Government policies and these will clearly be in the firing line for any new administration. 

Finally, the policies of the Department are not high profile and politicians may feel that they can make changes without too much backlash.

Significant cuts are clearly going to occur. If badly handled these could significantly damage a Department which is just starting to clearly define its role and purpose. It is possible, however, that the changes could be liberating and bring more focus to the Department. 

Many of the charity leaders present gave examples of where they have been actively competing against Government to deliver work – which is clearly a crazy situation. I have often wondered why the Department spent resources trying to encourage 60 million people to turn-off their television at standby rather than concentrating its efforts on getting the small number of TV manufactures to make more energy efficient TVs in the first instance. 

I have also been baffled as to how little control the Department seems to have over the quangos it is funding. Perhaps a tighter financial regime will force the Department to address basic issues such as these.

Green entrepreneurs

On Thursday I gave a presentation at the University of Cambridge on Green Entrepreneurs, as apparently some people think I am one - which was a bit of a surprise to me.

When I began at Global Action Plan I had a £35,000 grant, no office and no products; just a name, an idea and evidence from other countries that the approach could work. Over the subsequent years I have constantly tried new ideas and new initiatives. Some of these have worked and some haven’t, almost bankrupting the organisation in the process. It has been an enjoyable, turbulent and often lonely journey.

Setting up a green enterprise now would probably be a little easier.  Crucially there is a growing legislative framework in place that will compel more people to act. The scientific evidence is stronger than it was 15 years ago and the cost of energy and other resources looks like they will increase. More start-up funding is available and the market-place is much more clearly defined. Finally, technological solutions are fast appearing which are creating new business opportunities.

If I was starting now, I would definitely be looking to create an enterprise which seeks to ensure the new technology is effectively introduced. One of the features of a new low carbon economy is that there will be masses of new data collected. Ensuring that this data is used efficiently and creates real change will be a central challenge in the years ahead.

The ash cloud

Scientists largely agree that the impact of the volcanic eruption in Iceland will have a negligible impact on global atmosphere. However, the forced closure of the airports caused dramatic reductions in Nitrogen Oxide pollution downwind from the airport. During normal operations, emissions from Heathrow usually exceed the agreed EU limit. During the shutdown there was a threefold reduction in NOx bringing emission levels within the agreed limit. 

Nitrogen dioxide levels around Heathrow are one of the key stumbling blocks in the way of building a third runway and sixth terminal. The government has acknowledged that EU emission levels will not be met until 2020 and haven’t specified any clear action as to how it will be reached after that date. The forced closure provides clear evidence of the impact of planes on NOx levels and will give further evidence for the campaigners fighting the expansion.

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